UNC Chapel Hill
Freshman Sarah Anne Cook carries her belongings as she packs to leave campus following a cluster of COVID-19 cases at the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.

Businesses in college towns in the US are still reeling from the mass exodus of students that began in the spring and has now remained into the fall.
Many schools have adopted online-only approaches to learning or implemented a hybrid approach that brings only some students back to campus.
As their primary clientele — students, their families, and other members of university communities — diminishes, some business owners face a difficult decision: temporarily shut down again or close forever.
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For nearly a decade, Chris Carini has owned Linda’s Bar & Grill in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The restaurant has been serving the college town for nearly five times as long.

Carini described the place as a “local Cheers,” a nod to the 80s NBC sitcom that took place in a bar. It’s “loud enough to have a good time and quiet enough to have a conversation,” he said.

But after nearly 50 years in business, Linda’s is at risk of closing permanently. It wouldn’t be the first casualty the town’s businesses have faced in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We’ve lost a number of businesses already,” said Michael Parker, the mayor pro tem of Chapel Hill, which is home to the main campus of the University of North Carolina. “It’s a combination of a lack of students on campus coupled with the restrictions.”

At Linda’s, students and other members of the university community likely accounted for somewhere around 90% of clientele at the three-floor bar and restaurant, which “is usually pretty packed,” Carini told Business Insider. Even during the summer months, under normal circumstances, his restaurant still relies on university-related customers like prospective students and their families who visit to tour the university, or people coming to the school for various camps or events.

But since the pandemic hit in March, he said, “it’s not even worth being open.”

“I am losing money,” Carini added, noting the restaurant saw its earnings cut in half from January through August in comparison to 2019.

“If we continue to operate at the level we are operating, then I will no longer have funds available to me to ever re-open when we get the chance that we actually can.”  

Business owners are ‘trying to do everything’ they can to stay afloat

In August, another blow was dealt to Chapel Hill businesses. Just one week after it welcomed students back to campus for the fall semester, the University of North Carolina ditched its hybrid model and announced it would conduct the remainder of the semester entirely online following an outbreak of COVID-19.

As of Tuesday, more than 40% of all COVID-19 tests administered on campus have come back positive, according to the university’s coronavirus dashboard, more than two weeks after the school ended in-person instruction. 

Don Pinney, the owner of the local diner Sutton’s Drug Store, is also feeling the impact of coronavirus on the college town. Business at the diner, which has operated for nearly a century, has been down 80% since March, and slightly improved when students were brought back to campus in August prior to the shift to virtual learning, Pinney told the Raleigh News & Observer

“We’re trying to do everything we can and pulling out all the stops,” Carini said, noting that even as the business focused on takeout and delivery orders to amp up sales, the cost of paying employee salaries and other operating expenses like business insurance outpaces revenue.

“It’s a war of attrition if we’re putting out 100% and only taking in a small percentage every month,” he said. “It becomes a point where you have to shut the doors.”

The pandemic could have a yearslong impact on college towns, even beyond the businesses that operate there

“The important thing is what’s happening in Chapel Hill is not unique to Chapel Hill,” Parker told Insider. “It happened here first. But we’re already seeing Notre Dame shutting down, and clusters of cases of many universities that have reopened or some that have not yet reopened.”

He added: “I think right now Chapel Hill is in the canary in a coal mine, but I worry when some of the things are reported it makes it seem that Chapel Hill is exceptional in that regard, and I think it’s just that it happened here earlier than other places.”

In August, Ohio University, in Athens, Ohio, announced that the majority of its students wouldn’t initially return for in-person instruction this semester as part of a phased return to campus. Instead, most students began the semester virtually. Currently, the university’s plan involves returning more students to campus at the end of September.

The student exodus earlier this year, which coincided with the school’s spring break, hadn’t only hit Athens local businesses hard,  it also presented unexpected roadblocks to the entire city, Steve Patterson, the mayor of Athens and former Ohio University professor, told Business Insider. 

“The city of Athens provides clean, safe drinking water to everyone that resides in the city of Athens, including Ohio University properties, Patterson said. “And when your largest water customer doesn’t come back to full strength in the residence halls or dining facilities — the places you typically see a lot of water use — we’re going to see a real deficit in those components of city operations.” 

In May and June, Athens saw a decline of about $100,000 to the university’s water and sewer accounts. With students still largely absent from campus for the month of September, Patterson said the city was bracing for a similar shortfall.

“Then, depending on what happens in October and November, we anticipate seeing losses there, too,” Patterson added. “That’s revenue that goes into the operations, to pay the workers who work at the water and wastewater treatment plant. It goes into maintaining our water delivery system as well as our sewer system.”

There are even greater longterm fears.

Patterson said the count for the 2020 census began around the time students left campus in March. While city officials had once been optimistic that the population in Athens would increase from the 2010 data, they also feared a $40 million shortage in federal funding over the next decade if none of the 3,500 individuals who received their diploma from Ohio University in the spring were counted on the census. 

“Even being conservative and saying we lose half of that graduating class — do that math,” Patterson said. “That’s still $20 million over the course of ten years.

Census data is used to help provide lower-income neighborhoods with funds for revitalization needs like constructing and maintaining sidewalks. 

“A large portion of them still haven’t’ been enumerated,” he said, of Ohio University students. “So, we’re sitting there trying to scramble to get them to make sure they’re counted.”

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Kansas 4x3
Stacie Sulzen.

The Unemployed States of America takes readers deep inside the decimated American workforce.
Stacie Sulzen is a 51-year-old bartender based in Kansas City, Kansas.
Her bar closed at midnight on March 16, and she hasn’t been back since.
It took her about three months to start getting unemployment, and she didn’t have any money left by the time it arrived.
This is her story, as told to Jill Dutton. 
Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

I’d worked as a bartender for 27 years when the shutdown of the bars went into effect in Kansas. I was working at Reich’s Club, a small dive bar in Kansas City, Kansas, when the owner told me on March 16 to close the doors at midnight. 

I haven’t been back since.

It was such an uncertain time. I didn’t know what I was going to do, but I didn’t really think it would last. I figured a week or two and things would start going back to normal. The day after closing, I went out and bought a bunch of cans of soup and TV dinners.

The bar was sold during the shutdown period and the new owner, not knowing how long it would last, began gutting the bar to make renovations. At first, when I heard the previous owner washed his hands of it, I wondered if I’d have a job to go back to at all. The new owner does plan to bring us back, but it’s not ready to open yet.

In 27 years as a bartender, I’ve never taken a day off that I was scheduled to work. I would even cover other people’s shifts, often working double shifts. I just worked all the time. So at first, it was kind of neat to have some time off. You don’t get vacation days when you’re a bartender. There’s no insurance, no 401(k) — you live on tips and that’s how you live.

The first couple weeks, it was nice to sleep in and know that no one was going to call me into work. Then it got to the point where I was ready for the vacation to be over and get back to work. Food was running out; money was running out. It took about three months to start getting unemployment. 

Luckily, I have friends and family that helped me out. For my bills, when they would call, I would tell them that as soon as I had some money, I would send it their way. I was lucky that I never got any threats of the electricity being shut off, and my landlord was very kind and never said a word about my rent being late. I was very fortunate because I knew a lot of people who didn’t have understanding landlords.

By the time I received my first unemployment check, I didn’t have any money left.

I paid my electric bill and gave the rest of that first check to my landlord, except for a small bit I kept for myself. I did that again with the next few checks. So for the first month of getting unemployment I was still broke, because I was trying to catch up from three months of arrears.

The Kansas unemployment site was screwy, too. Even once I was getting checks, the site would go down and I couldn’t file a claim. Or I would file a claim and get an error message. It was a mess. It took me probably a month to get through by phone to the unemployment office just so I could get the errors fixed regarding the back pay I was owed. For those three months of unemployment in the beginning, I was owed five weeks of back pay. Finally, last week, I received the back pay.

I used the money to pay off all my bills. I actually paid ahead because I don’t know how long this will continue. My eligibility for unemployment has now run out. I filed for an extension a couple weeks ago, but again, haven’t heard anything yet.

When I was younger, I did some factory work. It seems like everyone I know who works in a factory hasn’t missed a beat because they’re considered essential workers. So I was thinking about doing that. I mean, there have been threats of them shutting the bars down again, so bartending or serving doesn’t look too promising going forward.

I have a job waiting for me when the remodeling at the bar is finished, but I can’t go to work until then. And even then, only half-capacity is allowed, so there isn’t much opportunity for tips.

I’m thinking factory work will be where I need to go.

I’ve been happy bartending — especially the socialization that comes with the job — so I know I’ll miss that if I have to take a factory job. Really, I worry that I won’t be able to find any job. What if everyone else decides to do the same thing as me and go into factory work? There might not be a job to go to. 

I’m glad I was able to prepay my bills for a few months, but after that, the future looks uncertain.

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Employers added 1.8 million jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2%, marking only partial progress toward recouping massive losses tied to the coronavirus pandemic. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through the key numbers.

Maybe Not a V, but Not a U Either

July’s payroll growth, at 1.8 million, still leaves total payrolls 12.9 million lower than in February. And yet if job gains continued at July’s pace, that deficit will be erased by March, 2021. If payrolls reclaim their last peak in 13 months, that would be remarkably fast. It took more than six years after the last recession. So can they maintain that pace? In July, job gains were blunted by a resurgence of the virus in the South and West which put the brakes on economic reopening. With cases slowly trending down now, economic activity should pick up, though that hasn’t shown up yet in private data such as credit card spending. Spending could also take a hit from the recent expiration of enhanced unemployment insurance benefits; Congress is struggling with an extension. And it’s unlikely that the pandemic is going to completely disappear by next year, so neither will the damage to many industries such as tourism and retailing. —Greg Ip

KEY THEMES

Labor-Market Churn

The unemployment rate fell for mostly the right reasons. Some people dropped out of the labor force but not nearly as many as found a job. Measures across the board improved, including the share of workers who wanted full-time work but were stuck in a part-time job.

The number of workers on temporary layoff fell and the number of permanent job losses was little changed last month, suggesting that many workers are getting recalled to old jobs or are able to switch into new ones. “The rate of churn in the labor market remains incredibly high, but a notable positive detail in this month’s report was the downtick in the rate of new permanent layoffs,” economists at Morgan Stanley wrote.

One potentially worrisome sign: The number of long-term unemployed is on the rise. That suggests that some people are at risk of getting locked out of the labor market—and ultimately exhausting unemployment benefits.

Job losses and gains haven’t been evenly distributed. Initially Blacks were less hard-hit than some other racial groups in the early stages of the recession, but the drop in their unemployment rate in July was the smallest among racial groups. —Greg Ip

Some of that was due to growing labor force participation; the Black employment-to-population ratio rose more than for Hispanics and whites. —Greg Ip

Who’s Hiring?

Some of the industries hit hardest by March and April lockdown orders experienced some of the biggest gains last month. Bars and restaurants, retailers, healthcare, laundry services and gambling halls posted big gains from June to July, reflecting efforts to reopen the economy by relaxing social distancing requirements.

While positive, July’s gains only begin to retrace earlier losses. And it’s not clear that the Labor Department data fully captured rising Covid-19 caseloads toward the end of July, which caused state and local governments to halt or roll back reopening plans and consumers to show renewed caution.

Not everything may be as it seems with the monthly figures. Government jobs, mainly in public schools, rose by a seasonally adjusted 300,000 in July. That’s welcome relief for a sector that typically stabilizes the economy in downturns, but which has been hard hit by the pandemic. However, it may be a mirage. On an unadjusted basis public-school jobs continued to decline in July, but the decrease was smaller than seasonal factors expected—because so many jobs have already been cut. Bottom line: If large school districts holding class online this fall don’t rehire staff, job losses will resume in the public sector soon. —Eric Morath

Can We Fix It?

One final note: The Labor Department appears to have largely solved misclassification problems that had artificially suppressed the unemployment rate. In March, April and May the agency counted millions of workers as absent—something that usually applies to vacation or sick leave—when they probably should have been classified as unemployed. That subtracted as many as 5 percentage points from the headline rate. The issue now accounts for less than 1 percentage point, Labor said Friday.

TWEET OF THE DAY

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WHAT ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING

“This is not a V-shaped recovery. Adding 1.8 million jobs is not sufficient for any sort of speedy recovery after the astronomical job losses of early spring.” —Nick Bunker, Indeed

“The pace of job growth slowed in July, but the gains over the past three months represent an impressive rebound during the ongoing economic challenges brought forth by the pandemic.” —Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association

“Recovery in jobs to pre-pandemic levels will likely be slow and prolonged, one that will restrain the pace of recovery.” —Rubeela Farooqi, High Frequency Economics

“These numbers suggest that the surge in virus cases since late June has so far not prevented the continued re-opening of the economy at the national level.” —Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings

“The slowdown we’re seeing is a reminder that a return to economic stability is ultimately hinged on addressing the public health crisis.” —Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor

“The economy is expanding, but the pace of improvement has slowed.” —Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors

“The huge remaining level gap in employment—still 12.9m lower than in February before the Covid shock hit—will keep the Fed firmly focused on supporting the recovery.” —Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI

“The payroll count still reveals a slowing in the pace of the labor market recovery. In the absence of additional fiscal aid, the broad economy risks losing momentum as it shifts into the second phase of its rehabilitation.” —Kathy Bostjancic, Oxford Economics

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Wrong Way

Filings for weekly unemployment benefits rose for the first time in nearly four months, a sign the jobs recovery could be faltering. Initial unemployment claims rose by a seasonally adjusted 109,000 to 1.4 million for the week ended July 18, halting what had been a steady descent from a peak of 6.9 million in late March. The data also show that the number of people receiving benefits has shrunk in recent weeks. Taken together, claims and benefits totals suggest new layoffs are being offset by hiring and employers recalling workers, though at a slower pace than a few weeks ago, Eric Morath reports.

Last week’s increase in applications came after several states imposed new restrictions on businesses such as bars and restaurants when coronavirus cases rose.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

IHS Markit’s U.S. manufacturing index for the opening weeks of July is expected to rise to 52.0 from 49.8 at the end of June. Services are expected to rise to 51.0 from 47.9. (9:45 a.m. ET)

U.S. new-home sales for June are expected to rise to an annual pace of 702,000 from 676,000 a month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)

The Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.

TOP STORIES

Ugly, Bad and Good

Jobless claims aren’t the only data suggesting trouble for the labor-market recovery. U.S. employers added 4.8 million jobs in June, helping recoup some of the massive losses from earlier in the year. But the Census Bureau’s weekly household pulse surveys, which tracked the big rise that month, now indicate that a resurgent pandemic has reclaimed most of those gains. Of course, other indicators point to continued job gains, the weekly survey is a new product and it isn’t meant to stand in for the official monthly report. Even so, the dropoff is a worrisome sign for a struggling labor market.

Time is running short for millions of unemployed Americans. Senate Republicans scrapped their plans to release a proposal for the next coronavirus relief bill after continued differences with the White House on unemployment insurance and direct cash payments. With the delay, Republicans won’t roll out their roughly $1 trillion legislation until next week, further compressing an already tight timeline to reach an agreement with Democrats and pass a fifth coronavirus relief bill. A $600 weekly supplement to state unemployment benefits is set to expire July 31, though it will effectively end in many states this weekend, Andrew Restuccia and Andrew Duehren report.

Once Congress does approve an economic relief package, a second round of stimulus payments could reach many Americans faster than last time. The Internal Revenue Service now has procedures, online tools, bank-account information and coordination with other agencies that it didn’t have set up in advance when the first round of payments was approved in the spring, Richard Rubin reports.

Another bit of good news: Some of the businesses hit hardest by the pandemic are driving the jobs recovery. Health-care providers and restaurants—which closed during lockdowns—have recalled millions of laid off workers. Job growth has also been boosted by increased demand in a handful of industries, including logistics firms, financial services and retailers such as furniture stores, Eric Morath and Kim Mackrael report.

Corporate America Doesn’t Expect This to Be Over Soon

Hershey said subdued Halloween celebrations this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic could hurt candy demand during a holiday that typically generates a tenth of its sales. The owner of Reese’s and Jolly Rancher said it is planning to make less Halloween-themed candy to avoid having loads of leftovers that it would have to pull back or try to sell at a discount, Annie Gasparro reports.

AMC Entertainment is pushing back the reopening of its U.S. theaters to mid-to-late August, after a number of summer blockbusters delayed their release dates. The nation’s largest theater chain previously said it would reopen at the end of July. U.S. theaters closed and Hollywood studios halted the release of major motion pictures in March as the pandemic took hold, and they remain in a holding pattern as several states are experiencing a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, Dave Sebastian reports.

Walt Disney canceled the planned August release of “Mulan” and said it would also delay the release of future installments in the “Avatar” and “Star Wars” series by a year, R.T. Watson and Erich Schwartzel report.

American Airlines and Southwest Airlines said they were tempering expectations for an air-travel recovery, as mounting coronavirus cases have driven down bookings by as much as 80% in some parts of the U.S. Southwest said cancellations are picking up and demand looks weaker heading into fall. Executives at American said bookings have started to slide and business travel, which usually picks up after Labor Day, shows no signs of resuming, Alison Sider and Doug Cameron report.

“In short, the crisis continues,” American Chief Executive Doug Parker said.

Europe’s Comeback

Encouraging news from Europe: Purchasing managers indexes for the U.K. and eurozone returned to growth this month, with output advancing at the fastest rate in years. The data suggest some economic rebound in the third quarter after a disastrous spring. “The concern is that the recovery could falter after this initial revival. Firms continue to reduce headcounts to a worrying degree, with many worried that underlying demand is insufficient to sustain the recent improvement in output,” IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson said. Manufacturing and service-sector activity are still contracting in Japan, though not as severely as prior months. U.S. data are out at 9:45 a.m. ET.

There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills

The price of gold neared an all-time high that has stood for almost nine years on Thursday, punctuating a furious rally driven by anxious investors seeking refuge from the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown. Prices have risen nearly 25% this year, extending an advance that began early in 2019. The coronavirus has sparked a global gold rush, with physical traders in London and New York trying to get their hands on more metal and individuals around the world ordering bars and coins, Amrith Ramkumar reports.

TWEET OF THE DAY

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Our House, in the Middle of Our Street

The U.S. housing market is staging a recovery as buyers shake off high unemployment and a rising number of coronavirus infections. Sales of previously owned homes rose 20.7% in June from the prior month, according to the National Association of Realtors, the biggest monthly increase on record going back to 1968. The surge follows other recent bullish indicators such as rising new-home sales, robust home-builder activity and a flood of mortgage applications. Record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand are driving sales: Apartment renters are seeking more space, young families are moving to the suburbs, and wealthy city dwellers are looking for second homes, Nicole Friedman reports.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

U.S. jobless claims for the week ending July 18 are expected to hold steady at 1.3 million. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The Conference Board’s leading economic index for June is expected to rise 2.1% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)

The European Union’s preliminary consumer confidence index for July is out at 10 a.m. ET.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey for July is out at 11 a.m. ET.

TOP STORIES

Crisis Mode

Small businesses are bracing for a prolonged crisis while short on cash and customers. Hopes for a quick economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic have been dashed, and companies are exhausting rescue funds. Many are shutting down or slashing jobs again, Ruth Simon, Amara Omeokwe and Gwynn Guilford report.

Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson’s Las Vegas Sands Corp. reported a 97% decline in revenue as the global pandemic damps visitation to the gambling hubs of Las Vegas and Macau, Katherine Sayre reports.

“I’ve never felt more gloomy than I do today about what’s happening in Las Vegas short term.” —Sands CEO Robert Goldstein

Whirlpool said it recovered significantly in June and improved its guidance for the year, signaling damage from the coronavirus pandemic might be lighter than the appliance maker expected. Chief Executive Marc Bitzer said consumers stuck at home are upgrading kitchen appliances, especially in the U.S. where home-improvement stores have largely remained open, Austen Hufford reports.

Unilever is sort of a microcosm for shifting demand. The consumer-goods giant said underlying sales—a closely watched figure that strips out currency movements and deals—declined 0.3% in the second quarter. But that result masks huge volatility: “Although it looks like we are flat on topline, we had record growth and record declines just one click below that,” said CFO Graeme Pitkethly. Food service and out-of-home ice cream businesses, for example, were hit by lockdowns while demand for hand and home-hygiene products grew double digits.

Given all the ups and downs, what’s happening with the recovery? It seems like it stalled. Data from Facteus, which tracks transactions by 15 million debit and credit card holders, suggest consumer spending has stabilized with new patterns of winners and losers largely locked in place. Some retail has more than recovered from prepandemic levels but entertainment and travel are still depressed. And since late June, consumer outlays appear somewhere between steady and decelerating.

A leveling off in activity is feeding through to broader economic measures. IHS Markit aggregates data that go into gross domestic product to create its own monthly GDP measure. Hard numbers and forecasts show the sharp drop and a quick but only partial rebound in output through June. Since then, though, high-frequency data suggest a slowdown in activity, and IHS Markit’s forecast now reflects that. 

The Ten-Dollar Founding Father

Despite a worse pandemic response, the U.S. economy has fared better than Europe’s in part because of its greater fiscal firepower. The European debt deal this week is all about eliminating that institutional gap. Leaders of the EU agreed to finance a €750 billion ($860.64 billion) package with bonds that are the obligation of the EU itself, rather than its individual members. The breakthrough is widely compared to the infant United States’ assumption of states’ debts at the prodding of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton. Importantly, the European Central Bank can buy EU bonds with newly created money just as the Federal Reserve buys Treasurys. That all but eliminates any risk of default. In short, the EU is beginning to acquire economic institutions that may one day rival the U.S.’s in their flexibility and firepower, Greg Ip writes.

Will Americans get a second stimulus check? President Trump said he wants to send a second round of direct payments, House Democrats passed a bill that would send Americans $1,200 each, and Republican leaders in the Senate now see additional checks as a part of any deal with Democrats. Whatever lawmakers ultimately agree upon would be part of a much broader package that could include different types of aid, such as expanded unemployment insurance, Andrew Duehren reports.

Korea in Recession

South Korea’s economy fell into a recession in the second quarter of the year as the global coronavirus pandemic took a heavy toll on the export-reliant country. Gross domestic product posted its worst performance since the first quarter of 1998, at the height of the Asian financial crisis, Kwanwoo Jun reports.

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

The Paycheck Protection Program helped save jobs. “We estimate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by 2% to 4.5%, with a preferred central tendency estimate of approximately 3.25%. Our estimates imply that the PPP increased aggregate U.S. employment by 1.4 million to 3.2 million jobs through the first week of June 2020, with a preferred central tendency estimate of about 2.3 million workers,” MIT’s David Autor and co-authors from the Federal Reserve and ADP write in a new paper.

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